January 4, 2023

2023 Real Estate Market Outlook (And What It Means for You)

Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates.

 

In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.

 

Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.

 

So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, here’s what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.

 

 

MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS

 

In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, “We’ve never seen rates double in so short a period.”2

 

This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.

 

In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3

 

  1. Inflation continues to surge, forcing the Fed to repeatedly raise interest rates. In that scenario, she predicts that rates could reach as high as 8.5%.
  2. Inflation decelerates and mortgage rates follow suit, averaging 7 to 7.5% for the year.
  3. Rising interest rates trigger a recession, which could ultimately lead mortgage rates to drop closer to 5% by the end of the year.

 

Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: “Mortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by year’s end.”4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelou’s scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5

 

Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a “modest recession” this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7

 

“From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6

 

What does it mean for you?  Even the experts can’t say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to ”time the market,” focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydowns—and keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. We’d be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.

 

 

SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE

 

It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers.

 

Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.

 

Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8

 

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. “The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.” She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9

 

However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: “It’s important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.”9

 

What does it mean for you?  If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.

 

If you’re hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.

 

 

HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE

 

While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” said Yun at a November conference.8

 

Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7

 

Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10

 

Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.

 

What does it mean for you? It can feel scary to buy a home when there’s uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.

 

And if you’re planning to sell this year, you’ll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.

 

 

RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB

 

Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive “above-average” rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12

 

According to Hale, “U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.”9

 

However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, there’s some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10

 

What does it mean for you?  Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options.

 

And if you’ve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.

 

 

WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU

 

While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.

 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.

 

 

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.

 

 

Sources:

  1. Forbes -
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
  2. Bankrate -
    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
  3. Bankrate -
    https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
  4. Realtor.com -
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
  5. Mortgage Bankers Association -
    https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
  6. Fannie Mae -
    https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
  7. Fannie Mae -
    https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
  8. National Association of Realtors -
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
  9. Realtor.com -
    https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
  10. The New York Times -
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
  11. CNBC -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
  12. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas -
    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

 

April 4, 2025
Dreaming of a new home but feeling priced out? You’re not alone! According to a recent survey by Bankrate, 78% of aspiring homebuyers cite affordability issues as their primary deterrent. 1 According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, home prices have risen around 32% since the pandemic, and elevated mortgage rates have caused monthly payments to balloon. 2
By Vickie Landis Rentsel March 26, 2025
Unlock Your Dream Home: Pennsylvania First-Time Home Buyer Grants You Need to Know 
March 11, 2025
Tax season. Just the words can send shivers down your spine. But if you’re a homeowner, there’s a silver lining: potential savings! You’ve probably heard that you can deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage — but did you know there are many other ways homeowners can reduce their tax burden? Before you start your return, read this post for common home-related tax deductions, eligibility requirements, and tips on how to maximize your savings. Home-Related Tax Savings: The Basics Before we get into the details, it’s important to define some important terms to set the stage. Tax Deductions vs. Tax Credits Most tax savings opportunities for homeowners come in the form of tax deductions. Deductions work by reducing your taxable income — essentially, the government allows you to subtract certain expenses from your total income before calculating how much you owe in taxes. This means a lower taxable income and, ultimately, a lower tax bill. For example, if you earn $50,000 and claim tax deductions worth $5,000, you will only pay taxes on $45,000. Tax credits, on the other hand, directly reduce your tax bill, rather than your taxable income. That means that if you owe $10,000 in taxes and claim a tax credit worth $2,000, your tax bill will be reduced to $8,000. Pro Tip: Meticulous record-keeping is crucial. Keep detailed records of all potentially eligible expenses. This will make tax time much smoother and ensure you don’t miss out on any deductions. Itemized Deductions vs. Standard Deduction To understand what deductions apply to your situation, it’s important to know the difference between itemized deductions and the standard deduction . The standard deduction is a fixed dollar amount that you can subtract from your adjusted gross income (AGI) regardless of your actual expenses. Itemized deductions, on the other hand, are specific expenses that you can deduct, such as mortgage interest, property taxes, and charitable contributions. You’ll need to choose whether to itemize or take the standard deduction. Generally, you should itemize if your total itemized deductions exceed the standard deduction. Most home-related deductions are only applicable if you choose to itemize. 2025 Standard Deduction Amounts Single and Married Filing Separately: $15,000 Head of Household: $22,500 Married Filing Jointly: $30,000 1 Source: IRS Key Home-Related Tax Deductions and Credits If you do choose to itemize your taxes, common tax deductions and credits available to homeowners include: Mortgage Interest Deduction No one likes to pay mortgage interest, but the good news is that you can deduct interest used to buy or build your primary residence or a second home. However, there are certain limitations that you need to be aware of. 2 Mortgage size: If you file your taxes single or married filing jointly, you can deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt 3 for your primary residence or second home. If you are married but choose to file separately, that limit drops to the first $375,000 (for each partner). Requirements: The mortgage interest deduction only applies if your home is collateral for the loan (which is standard). To qualify as a primary home, your property must have sleeping, cooking, and toilet facilities. If you are deducting mortgage interest on a second home, you don’t need to use the home during the year; however, if you rent it out, you must spend at least 14 days or more than 10% of the days you rented it out (whichever is longer). So, how do you calculate how much mortgage interest you’ve paid? The amount of interest you pay each year will vary, even if your interest rate is fixed — that’s because mortgage amortization 3 means that you pay more interest earlier in the mortgage’s term, and more principal closer to the end. Each year, your lender will send you (and the IRS) a copy of Form 1098 , which shows how much you paid in interest. 4 For example, let’s say you are a married homeowner filing jointly with a mortgage for $400,000. If your Form 1098 shows that you paid $25,000 in mortgage interest in 2025, you could deduct the full $25,000 from your 2025 household income. Real Estate Taxes (Property Taxes) You can deduct state and local real estate taxes (property taxes) you pay on your primary residence or second home. However, it’s crucial to understand what qualifies. Only property taxes imposed for “general public welfare” are deductible 5 —if your town imposes a special assessment for a project that directly improves your property value, like a sewer line, that is not deductible. Furthermore, fees for local services, such as trash collection or sewer maintenance, are not deductible, even though your town may list them on the same bill as your property taxes. There’s also a limit: the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act imposed a $10,000 cap on the total amount of state and local taxes (SALT) 6 you can deduct. This includes state and local income tax (or sales tax) as well as property taxes. Finally, be aware that the amount you deduct must match the amount actually paid to the tax authority.7 This might differ from what you put into escrow if you pay property taxes through your mortgage lender. Typically, the amount your lender paid to your tax authority is listed on Form 1098. Home Equity Loan Interest You can deduct the interest paid on home equity loans or home equity lines of credit, but with a significant caveat. Since 2017, that interest is only deductible if the loan proceeds are used to buy, build, or substantially improve 3 your primary residence or second home, and the loan is secured by the home. If you use the home equity loan for other purposes, such as a vacation, debt consolidation, or purchasing a car, the interest is generally not deductible. If you use part of the loan or line of credit for eligible purchases, and part for non-eligible purchases, only interest incurred on the portion used for eligible spending is deductible. Loan interest is also not deductible if the funds are used for home improvement projects or repairs that do not “substantially improve” your home. Smaller projects, like repainting or new cabinets, likely do not qualify. However, projects like building an addition, a full kitchen remodel, or installing a new roof should qualify as substantial improvements. It’s also important to note that home equity loan and HELOC interest rate deductions are subject to the same upper limits 3 as mortgages (and are added together with your mortgage for calculation purposes). For example, if you have a $500,000 mortgage and a $300,000 home equity line of credit—which together exceed the $750,000 limit for a married couple—you would only be able to deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of those combined loans. Home Improvement Expenses You can’t usually deduct home improvement expenses directly.9 However, the money you spend on capital improvements (improvements that increase your home’s value) can help reduce your tax bill later. These expenses are added to your home’s “cost basis,” 10 which reduces your capital gains tax when you eventually sell the house. Think of it this way: by keeping records of your home improvements, you’re essentially increasing the “price” you’re considered to have paid for your home, thus lowering your profit when you sell. It’s important to note that not all projects qualify as capital improvement. Basic repairs and updates likely won’t qualify, while major additions and landscaping likely will (the considerations are the same as those used to determine whether home equity loan interest is deductible). Beyond capital improvement, there are a few specific categories of home improvement that are deductible, including work on home offices (which is subject to specific limitations) and certain modifications for medical/accessibility reasons. 11
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