June 5, 2024

Mid-Year Market Update for 2024: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

Last December, when the Federal Reserve projected a series of benchmark rate cuts in the coming year, some analysts speculated that mortgage rates—which had recently peaked near 8%—would fall closer to 6% by mid-2024.1,2,3 Unfortunately, persistent inflation has delayed the central bank’s timeline and kept the average 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 7% so far this year.2 While elevated mortgage rates have continued to dampen the pace of home sales and affordability, there have been some positive developments for frustrated homebuyers. Nationwide, the inventory shortage is starting to ease, and an uptick in starter homes coming on the market has helped to slow the median home price growth rate, presenting some relief to cash-strapped buyers.4 There are also signs that sellers are adjusting to the higher rate environment, as a growing number list their properties for sale.4 Still, economists say a persistent housing deficit—combined with tighter lending standards and historically high levels of home equity—will help keep the market stable.5 What does that mean for you? Read on for our take on this year's most important real estate news and get a sneak peek into what analysts predict is around the corner for 2024.


MORTGAGE RATE CUTS WILL TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED At its most recent meeting on May 1, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate at a 23-year high in response to the latest, still-elevated inflation numbers.6 While mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, they do tend to move in tandem. So, while expected, the Fed’s announcement was further proof that a meaningful decline in mortgage rates—and a subsequent real estate market rebound—is farther off than many experts predicted. “The housing market has always been interest rate sensitive. When rates go up, we tend to see less activity,” explained Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale in a recent article. “The housing market is even more rate sensitive now because many people are locked into low mortgage rates and because first-time buyers are really stretched by high prices and borrowing costs.”7 Many experts now speculate that the first benchmark rate cut will come no sooner than September, so homebuyers hoping for a cheaper mortgage will have to remain patient. “We’re not likely to see mortgage rates decline significantly until after the Fed makes its first cut; and the longer it takes for that to happen, the less likely it is that we’ll see rates much below 6.5% by the end of the year,” predicted Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company, in a May interview.


What does it mean for you? Mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall significantly any time soon, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should wait to buy a home. A drop in rates could lead to a spike in home prices if pent-up demand sends a flood of homebuyers back into the market. Reach out to schedule a free consultation so we can help you chart the best course for your home purchase or sale.


BUYERS ARE GAINING OPTIONS AS SELLERS RETURN TO THE MARKET There is a silver lining for buyers who have struggled to find the right property: More Americans are sticking a for-sale in their yard.9 Given the record-low inventory levels of the past few years, this presents an opportunity for buyers to find a place they love—and potentially score a better deal. In 2023, inventory remained scarce as homeowners who felt beholden to their existing mortgage rates delayed their plans to sell. However, a recent survey by Realtor.com shows that a growing number of those owners are ready to jump in off the sidelines.10 While the majority of potential sellers still report feeling “locked in” by their current mortgage, the share has declined slightly (79% now versus 82% in 2023). Additionally, nearly one-third of those “locked-in” owners say they need to sell soon for personal reasons, and the vast majority (86%) report that they’ve already been thinking about selling for more than a year.10 Renewed optimism may also be playing a part. “Both our ‘good time to buy’ and ‘good time to sell’ measures continued their slow upward drift this month,” noted Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan in an April statement.11 However, the current stock of available homes still falls short of pre-pandemic levels, according to economists at Realtor.com. “For the first four months of this year, the inventory of homes actively for sale was at its highest level since 2020. However, while inventory this April is much improved compared with the previous three years, it is still down 35.9% compared with typical 2017 to 2019 levels.”


What does it mean for you? If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, you may want to take another look. An increase in inventory, coupled with relatively low buyer competition, could make this an ideal time to make a move. Reach out if you’re ready to search for your next home. If you’re hoping to sell this year, you may also want to act now. If inventory levels grow, it will become more challenging for your home to stand out. We can craft a plan to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Contact us to schedule a free consultation.


HOME PRICES ARE RISING AT A MORE MANAGEABLE PACE Homebuyers struggling with high borrowing costs have something else to celebrate. The national median home price has remained relatively stable over the past year, due to sellers bringing a greater share of smaller, more affordable homes to the market.4 In addition to offering cheaper homes, a recent survey found that home sellers are also adjusting their expectations when it comes to pricing. In many regions, just 12% anticipate a bidding war (down from 23% last year) and only 15% expect to sell above list price (versus 31% in 2023).10 But buyers shouldn’t expect a fire sale. According to Realtor.com’s April Housing Market Trends Report, “On an adjusted per-square-foot basis, the median list price grew by 3.8%, as homes continue to retain their value despite increased inventory compared with last year.”4 Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for the data firm CoreLogic, projects that home prices will keep rising at a gradual pace through the rest of 2024. “Spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check.”


What does it mean for you? An increase in more affordable housing stock is great news, especially for first-time buyers. And with home values expected to keep rising, an investment in real estate could help you build wealth over time. Reach out to discuss your goals and budget, and we can help you decide if you’re ready to take your first step on the property ladder.


DESIRE TO OWN PERSISTS, BUT AFFORDABILITY REMAINS AN OBSTACLE Surveys show that the American dream of homeownership is alive and well, despite the financial challenges. In fact, a recent poll by Realtor.com found that 55% of Millennial and 40% of Gen Z respondents believe that now is a good time to buy a home.13 According to Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan, buyers are starting to adapt to the new economic reality. “With the historically low rates of the pandemic era now firmly behind us, some households appear to be moving past the hurdle of last year’s sharp jump in rates, an adjustment that we think could help further thaw the housing market. We noted in our latest monthly forecast that we expect to see a gradual increase in home listings and sales transactions in the coming year." The Realtor.com study also revealed that even a small drop in mortgage rates could give a big boost to homebuyer demand and affordability. In fact, 40% of the buyers polled would find a home purchase attainable if rates fall under 6%, and an additional 32% plan to enter the market if rates dip below 5%.13 But waiting for rates to drop isn’t the only approach that Americans are using to afford a home. A survey by U.S. News & World Report found that determined homebuyers are employing a variety of strategies, including shopping multiple lenders (52%), purchasing discount points to lower their rates (36%), and opting for adjustable-rate mortgages (36%). More than three-quarters of today’s buyers also hope to refinance to a lower rate in the future.14 Despite the obstacles, these respondents remain steadfast in their desire to own a home, listing financial benefits, stability, and more space as their top motivations for wanting to buy.


What does it mean for you? If you’re dreaming of a new home, let’s talk. We can help you evaluate your options and connect you with a mortgage professional to discuss strategies you can use to make your monthly payments more affordable. And remember, in many cases, you can refinance if rates drop in the future. If you have plans to sell, it will be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to maximize your profit margins and draw in qualified buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.


WE'RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU While national housing reports can give you a “big picture” outlook, much of real estate is local. And as local market experts, we know what's most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. As a trusted partner in your real estate journey, we can guide you through the market's twists and turns. If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2024, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. Let’s work together and craft an action plan to meet your real estate goals.

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate for advice regarding your individual needs. 



Sources:

  1. CBS News - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-rate-decision-pause-december-13/
  2. Bankrate - https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/
  3. Fannie Mae - https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50096/display
  4. Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/research/april-2024-data/
  5. Bankrate - https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/
  6. NPR - https://www.npr.org/2024/05/01/1248454950/federal-reserve-inflation-interest-rates
  7. Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/will-the-fed-cut-interest-rates-2024-housing-market/
  8. The Mortgage Reports - https://themortgagereports.com/32667/mortgage-rates-forecast-fha-va-usda-conventional
  9. Fast Company - https://www.fastcompany.com/91106568/housing-market-inventory-rising-across-country-maps
  10. Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/
  11. Fannie Mae - https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveys-indices/national-housing-survey
  12. CoreLogic - https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-us-annual-home-price-growth-slows-still-up-by-over-5-february/
  13. Realtor.com - https://www.realtor.com/research/america-dream-survey-feb-2024/
  14. US News & World Report - https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/articles/2024-homebuyer-survey



April 4, 2025
Dreaming of a new home but feeling priced out? You’re not alone! According to a recent survey by Bankrate, 78% of aspiring homebuyers cite affordability issues as their primary deterrent. 1 According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, home prices have risen around 32% since the pandemic, and elevated mortgage rates have caused monthly payments to balloon. 2
By Vickie Landis Rentsel March 26, 2025
Unlock Your Dream Home: Pennsylvania First-Time Home Buyer Grants You Need to Know 
March 11, 2025
Tax season. Just the words can send shivers down your spine. But if you’re a homeowner, there’s a silver lining: potential savings! You’ve probably heard that you can deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage — but did you know there are many other ways homeowners can reduce their tax burden? Before you start your return, read this post for common home-related tax deductions, eligibility requirements, and tips on how to maximize your savings. Home-Related Tax Savings: The Basics Before we get into the details, it’s important to define some important terms to set the stage. Tax Deductions vs. Tax Credits Most tax savings opportunities for homeowners come in the form of tax deductions. Deductions work by reducing your taxable income — essentially, the government allows you to subtract certain expenses from your total income before calculating how much you owe in taxes. This means a lower taxable income and, ultimately, a lower tax bill. For example, if you earn $50,000 and claim tax deductions worth $5,000, you will only pay taxes on $45,000. Tax credits, on the other hand, directly reduce your tax bill, rather than your taxable income. That means that if you owe $10,000 in taxes and claim a tax credit worth $2,000, your tax bill will be reduced to $8,000. Pro Tip: Meticulous record-keeping is crucial. Keep detailed records of all potentially eligible expenses. This will make tax time much smoother and ensure you don’t miss out on any deductions. Itemized Deductions vs. Standard Deduction To understand what deductions apply to your situation, it’s important to know the difference between itemized deductions and the standard deduction . The standard deduction is a fixed dollar amount that you can subtract from your adjusted gross income (AGI) regardless of your actual expenses. Itemized deductions, on the other hand, are specific expenses that you can deduct, such as mortgage interest, property taxes, and charitable contributions. You’ll need to choose whether to itemize or take the standard deduction. Generally, you should itemize if your total itemized deductions exceed the standard deduction. Most home-related deductions are only applicable if you choose to itemize. 2025 Standard Deduction Amounts Single and Married Filing Separately: $15,000 Head of Household: $22,500 Married Filing Jointly: $30,000 1 Source: IRS Key Home-Related Tax Deductions and Credits If you do choose to itemize your taxes, common tax deductions and credits available to homeowners include: Mortgage Interest Deduction No one likes to pay mortgage interest, but the good news is that you can deduct interest used to buy or build your primary residence or a second home. However, there are certain limitations that you need to be aware of. 2 Mortgage size: If you file your taxes single or married filing jointly, you can deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt 3 for your primary residence or second home. If you are married but choose to file separately, that limit drops to the first $375,000 (for each partner). Requirements: The mortgage interest deduction only applies if your home is collateral for the loan (which is standard). To qualify as a primary home, your property must have sleeping, cooking, and toilet facilities. If you are deducting mortgage interest on a second home, you don’t need to use the home during the year; however, if you rent it out, you must spend at least 14 days or more than 10% of the days you rented it out (whichever is longer). So, how do you calculate how much mortgage interest you’ve paid? The amount of interest you pay each year will vary, even if your interest rate is fixed — that’s because mortgage amortization 3 means that you pay more interest earlier in the mortgage’s term, and more principal closer to the end. Each year, your lender will send you (and the IRS) a copy of Form 1098 , which shows how much you paid in interest. 4 For example, let’s say you are a married homeowner filing jointly with a mortgage for $400,000. If your Form 1098 shows that you paid $25,000 in mortgage interest in 2025, you could deduct the full $25,000 from your 2025 household income. Real Estate Taxes (Property Taxes) You can deduct state and local real estate taxes (property taxes) you pay on your primary residence or second home. However, it’s crucial to understand what qualifies. Only property taxes imposed for “general public welfare” are deductible 5 —if your town imposes a special assessment for a project that directly improves your property value, like a sewer line, that is not deductible. Furthermore, fees for local services, such as trash collection or sewer maintenance, are not deductible, even though your town may list them on the same bill as your property taxes. There’s also a limit: the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act imposed a $10,000 cap on the total amount of state and local taxes (SALT) 6 you can deduct. This includes state and local income tax (or sales tax) as well as property taxes. Finally, be aware that the amount you deduct must match the amount actually paid to the tax authority.7 This might differ from what you put into escrow if you pay property taxes through your mortgage lender. Typically, the amount your lender paid to your tax authority is listed on Form 1098. Home Equity Loan Interest You can deduct the interest paid on home equity loans or home equity lines of credit, but with a significant caveat. Since 2017, that interest is only deductible if the loan proceeds are used to buy, build, or substantially improve 3 your primary residence or second home, and the loan is secured by the home. If you use the home equity loan for other purposes, such as a vacation, debt consolidation, or purchasing a car, the interest is generally not deductible. If you use part of the loan or line of credit for eligible purchases, and part for non-eligible purchases, only interest incurred on the portion used for eligible spending is deductible. Loan interest is also not deductible if the funds are used for home improvement projects or repairs that do not “substantially improve” your home. Smaller projects, like repainting or new cabinets, likely do not qualify. However, projects like building an addition, a full kitchen remodel, or installing a new roof should qualify as substantial improvements. It’s also important to note that home equity loan and HELOC interest rate deductions are subject to the same upper limits 3 as mortgages (and are added together with your mortgage for calculation purposes). For example, if you have a $500,000 mortgage and a $300,000 home equity line of credit—which together exceed the $750,000 limit for a married couple—you would only be able to deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of those combined loans. Home Improvement Expenses You can’t usually deduct home improvement expenses directly.9 However, the money you spend on capital improvements (improvements that increase your home’s value) can help reduce your tax bill later. These expenses are added to your home’s “cost basis,” 10 which reduces your capital gains tax when you eventually sell the house. Think of it this way: by keeping records of your home improvements, you’re essentially increasing the “price” you’re considered to have paid for your home, thus lowering your profit when you sell. It’s important to note that not all projects qualify as capital improvement. Basic repairs and updates likely won’t qualify, while major additions and landscaping likely will (the considerations are the same as those used to determine whether home equity loan interest is deductible). Beyond capital improvement, there are a few specific categories of home improvement that are deductible, including work on home offices (which is subject to specific limitations) and certain modifications for medical/accessibility reasons. 11
More Posts
Share by: