June 1, 2023

National Real Estate Market Update

National Real Estate Market Update for 2023


There’s an old adage in real estate: location, location, location. But ever since the Federal Reserve began its series of inflation-fighting interest rate hikes last year, a new mantra has emerged: mortgage rates, mortgage rates, mortgage rates.


Higher rates had the immediate impact of dampening homebuyer affordability and demand. But this year, we’re seeing further repercussions. While analysts expected listing inventory to swell as sales declined, instead, homeowners have been pushing off plans to sell because they feel beholden to their existing, lower mortgage rates.


So what impact is this reduced demand and low supply environment having on home values? And what can we expect from the real estate market in the coming months and years? Here are several key indicators that help to paint a picture of the current market and where it’s likely headed.



HOME SALES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY EARLY NEXT YEAR


The weather isn’t the only thing that heats up in the spring and summer. Nationally, it tends to be the busiest time in real estate. But this year, the peak season got off to a slow start, with sales declines in both March and April.1,2 Existing home sales in April were down 3.4% from the previous month—and 23.2% from a year earlier.2


What’s causing this market slowdown? Industry experts attribute it to several factors, including near-record home prices, high mortgage rates, and low inventory.


According to National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, multiple offers on starter homes are quite common, implying more supply is needed to fully satisfy demand. It's a unique housing market.”1


However, some industry experts believe the market is poised for a comeback. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict that home sales will continue to fall through Q3 before rising in Q4 and throughout next year.3 Analysts at Fannie Mae expect the recovery to take a bit longer, picking up in early 2024.


Meanwhile, home builder confidence is already up, as purchases of new single-family homes surged in March and April to a 13-month high.5 Builder incentives are helping to boost sales: According to the National Association of Home Builders, in May, 54% reported using them to win over budget-conscious buyers.6


What does it mean for you? A slower pace of sales has given buyers some breathing room. If you hated the frenzy of the pandemic-era real estate market, now might be a better time for you to shop for a home. We can help you evaluate your options and make an informed purchase.


If you plan to sell your home, prepare yourself for less foot traffic and a longer sales timeline than you may have found a year ago. It will also be crucial to enlist the help of a skilled agent who knows how to draw in buyers. Reach out for a copy of our multi-step Property Marketing Plan.

 


PROPERTY VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE


Some good news for buyers: While home builder sales climbed in April, the median new-house price fell to $420,800, an 8.2% decrease from a year ago.5 Meanwhile, the median existing-home price dropped to $388,800, down 1.7% year-over-year. Notably, existing-home prices rose in parts of the country but fell in the South and West.2 


“Roughly half of the country is experiencing price gains,” explains Yun. “Multiple-offer situations have returned in the spring buying season following the calmer winter market. Distressed and forced property sales are virtually nonexistent.”2


The average national home price remains about 40% higher than it was in early 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.7 A tight housing supply has helped to buoy prices amidst a slowdown in sales.


“While it varies from region to region, home prices at the national level may fall 1% or 1.5% by the end of the year, so not much,” Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance in April.8


Record levels of home equity will help to stabilize the sector and prevent a wave of foreclosures, even as prices moderate, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.9


“But for those who have owned a home for more than a year or two, their home will remain a rock-solid investment. And once affordability is restored, the next generation of households can become homeowners. Getting there is critical to the financial well-being of those households, their communities, and the broader economy,” writes Zandi in The Washington Post.9


What does it mean for you? Prices have softened in certain market segments—and motivated sellers are out there and willing to make deals. We can help you find your next home and negotiate a great price.


If you’re a homeowner, the surge in home values has slowed, but you’re likely still sitting on a nice pile of equity. Reach out for a free assessment to find out how much your home is currently worth.



LISTING INVENTORY IS LOW, BUT NEW CONSTRUCTION IS ON THE RISE


Unsold existing home inventory rose 7.2% from March to April, according to NAR. At the current level of demand, this equates to 2.9 months of supply, which is still well below the 5 to 6 months of inventory required for a “balanced” market.2


Inventory remains tight despite the market slowdown because many would-be sellers are reluctant to give up their lower mortgage rates. “Affordability is not only an issue for first-time homebuyers, but also for many repeat buyers who still need to take on a mortgage,” explains Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.10


In a recent survey by the home listing site, 82% of respondents who are planning to both buy and sell a home said they feel “locked in” by their low rate.11


In some areas, new home construction is helping to fill the supply gap. “Currently, one-third of housing inventory is new construction, compared to historical norms of a little more than 10%,” according to National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.12


And more new homes are in the pipeline, after a builder slowdown last year. Single-family housing starts rose 1.6% from March to April (seasonally adjusted) and new construction permits hit a seven-month high.13


What does it mean for you? Inventory remains tight, but less competition means more choice and negotiating power for buyers. If you’ve had trouble finding a home in the past, it may be time to take another look. We can help you explore both new and existing homes in our area.


Sellers are enjoying reduced competition right now, as well. However, the longer you wait to list, the more competition you’re likely to face. And if you feel locked in by your current, lower mortgage rate, consider this: If you roll your equity gains into a down payment on your next home, you could possibly lower your monthly payment. Reach out to discuss your options.



MORTGAGE RATES MAY FINALLY COME DOWN


According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a peak of 7.08% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and since then it’s primarily floated between 6 and 7%.14 However, there are signs that rates could trend lower later this year.


“Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates, eventually,” Yun predicted in a recent statement. “Mortgage rates slipping down to under 6% looks very likely toward the year’s end.”15


Other leading economists agree. In its May forecast, Fannie Mae speculates that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will continue to decline, averaging 6.0% in Q4 2023 and 5.4% by Q4 2024.4 Meanwhile, the MBA predicts rates will fall even faster, averaging 5.6% by Q4 2023 and 4.8% by Q4 2024.3


On May 3, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark borrowing rate by another quarter point—its 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. However, in its corresponding statement, the Fed omitted language from its previous release about “additional policy firming,” leaving some analysts to speculate that the rate hikes may be over.16 


Although mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, a decision by the Fed to pause rate increases could have a positive effect. In the meantime, buyers should shop around multiple lenders to find the best rate—and buckle up for what could be an exciting ride.


What does it mean for you? Mortgage rates may finally trend down, which would be great news for buyers. But, a decrease in rates could correspond with an increase in competition and prices. If you start searching now, you’ll be prepared to make an offer when the time is right. We can help you negotiate a great deal and potential seller incentives.


If you’re planning to sell, this is good news for you, too. But, there are several factors to consider when determining the right time to list your home. Reach out for a consultation so we can help you chart the best course.



WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU


While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 


If you’re considering buying or selling a home, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals.



The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.


Sources:

National Association of Realtors -

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-slid-2-4-in-march

National Association of Realtors -

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-faded-3-4-in-april

Mortgage Bankers Association -

https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-may-2023.pdf?sfvrsn=4bf1d1a7_1

Fannie Mae -

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/47006/display

U.S. Census Bureau - 

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html

National Association of Home Builders -

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/05/lack-of-existing-inventory--boosts-builder-confidence-to-key-marker

New York Times -

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html?

Yahoo Finance -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-increase-after-weeks-of-declines-160015631.html

The Washington Post -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/22/housing-prices-put-some-out-of-the-market/

CNBC -

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/home-sales-fell-in-march-amid-volatility-in-mortgage-rates.html

Realtor.com -

https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-q1-sellers-survey-btts/

National Association of Home Builders - 

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/04/lack-of-existing-inventory-continues-to-support-builder-sentiment

United State Census Bureau -

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Freddie Mac -

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

National Association of Realtors - 

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/instant-reaction-inflation-april-12-2023

CNBC - 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html

April 4, 2025
Dreaming of a new home but feeling priced out? You’re not alone! According to a recent survey by Bankrate, 78% of aspiring homebuyers cite affordability issues as their primary deterrent. 1 According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, home prices have risen around 32% since the pandemic, and elevated mortgage rates have caused monthly payments to balloon. 2
By Vickie Landis Rentsel March 26, 2025
Unlock Your Dream Home: Pennsylvania First-Time Home Buyer Grants You Need to Know 
March 11, 2025
Tax season. Just the words can send shivers down your spine. But if you’re a homeowner, there’s a silver lining: potential savings! You’ve probably heard that you can deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage — but did you know there are many other ways homeowners can reduce their tax burden? Before you start your return, read this post for common home-related tax deductions, eligibility requirements, and tips on how to maximize your savings. Home-Related Tax Savings: The Basics Before we get into the details, it’s important to define some important terms to set the stage. Tax Deductions vs. Tax Credits Most tax savings opportunities for homeowners come in the form of tax deductions. Deductions work by reducing your taxable income — essentially, the government allows you to subtract certain expenses from your total income before calculating how much you owe in taxes. This means a lower taxable income and, ultimately, a lower tax bill. For example, if you earn $50,000 and claim tax deductions worth $5,000, you will only pay taxes on $45,000. Tax credits, on the other hand, directly reduce your tax bill, rather than your taxable income. That means that if you owe $10,000 in taxes and claim a tax credit worth $2,000, your tax bill will be reduced to $8,000. Pro Tip: Meticulous record-keeping is crucial. Keep detailed records of all potentially eligible expenses. This will make tax time much smoother and ensure you don’t miss out on any deductions. Itemized Deductions vs. Standard Deduction To understand what deductions apply to your situation, it’s important to know the difference between itemized deductions and the standard deduction . The standard deduction is a fixed dollar amount that you can subtract from your adjusted gross income (AGI) regardless of your actual expenses. Itemized deductions, on the other hand, are specific expenses that you can deduct, such as mortgage interest, property taxes, and charitable contributions. You’ll need to choose whether to itemize or take the standard deduction. Generally, you should itemize if your total itemized deductions exceed the standard deduction. Most home-related deductions are only applicable if you choose to itemize. 2025 Standard Deduction Amounts Single and Married Filing Separately: $15,000 Head of Household: $22,500 Married Filing Jointly: $30,000 1 Source: IRS Key Home-Related Tax Deductions and Credits If you do choose to itemize your taxes, common tax deductions and credits available to homeowners include: Mortgage Interest Deduction No one likes to pay mortgage interest, but the good news is that you can deduct interest used to buy or build your primary residence or a second home. However, there are certain limitations that you need to be aware of. 2 Mortgage size: If you file your taxes single or married filing jointly, you can deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt 3 for your primary residence or second home. If you are married but choose to file separately, that limit drops to the first $375,000 (for each partner). Requirements: The mortgage interest deduction only applies if your home is collateral for the loan (which is standard). To qualify as a primary home, your property must have sleeping, cooking, and toilet facilities. If you are deducting mortgage interest on a second home, you don’t need to use the home during the year; however, if you rent it out, you must spend at least 14 days or more than 10% of the days you rented it out (whichever is longer). So, how do you calculate how much mortgage interest you’ve paid? The amount of interest you pay each year will vary, even if your interest rate is fixed — that’s because mortgage amortization 3 means that you pay more interest earlier in the mortgage’s term, and more principal closer to the end. Each year, your lender will send you (and the IRS) a copy of Form 1098 , which shows how much you paid in interest. 4 For example, let’s say you are a married homeowner filing jointly with a mortgage for $400,000. If your Form 1098 shows that you paid $25,000 in mortgage interest in 2025, you could deduct the full $25,000 from your 2025 household income. Real Estate Taxes (Property Taxes) You can deduct state and local real estate taxes (property taxes) you pay on your primary residence or second home. However, it’s crucial to understand what qualifies. Only property taxes imposed for “general public welfare” are deductible 5 —if your town imposes a special assessment for a project that directly improves your property value, like a sewer line, that is not deductible. Furthermore, fees for local services, such as trash collection or sewer maintenance, are not deductible, even though your town may list them on the same bill as your property taxes. There’s also a limit: the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act imposed a $10,000 cap on the total amount of state and local taxes (SALT) 6 you can deduct. This includes state and local income tax (or sales tax) as well as property taxes. Finally, be aware that the amount you deduct must match the amount actually paid to the tax authority.7 This might differ from what you put into escrow if you pay property taxes through your mortgage lender. Typically, the amount your lender paid to your tax authority is listed on Form 1098. Home Equity Loan Interest You can deduct the interest paid on home equity loans or home equity lines of credit, but with a significant caveat. Since 2017, that interest is only deductible if the loan proceeds are used to buy, build, or substantially improve 3 your primary residence or second home, and the loan is secured by the home. If you use the home equity loan for other purposes, such as a vacation, debt consolidation, or purchasing a car, the interest is generally not deductible. If you use part of the loan or line of credit for eligible purchases, and part for non-eligible purchases, only interest incurred on the portion used for eligible spending is deductible. Loan interest is also not deductible if the funds are used for home improvement projects or repairs that do not “substantially improve” your home. Smaller projects, like repainting or new cabinets, likely do not qualify. However, projects like building an addition, a full kitchen remodel, or installing a new roof should qualify as substantial improvements. It’s also important to note that home equity loan and HELOC interest rate deductions are subject to the same upper limits 3 as mortgages (and are added together with your mortgage for calculation purposes). For example, if you have a $500,000 mortgage and a $300,000 home equity line of credit—which together exceed the $750,000 limit for a married couple—you would only be able to deduct interest paid on the first $750,000 of those combined loans. Home Improvement Expenses You can’t usually deduct home improvement expenses directly.9 However, the money you spend on capital improvements (improvements that increase your home’s value) can help reduce your tax bill later. These expenses are added to your home’s “cost basis,” 10 which reduces your capital gains tax when you eventually sell the house. Think of it this way: by keeping records of your home improvements, you’re essentially increasing the “price” you’re considered to have paid for your home, thus lowering your profit when you sell. It’s important to note that not all projects qualify as capital improvement. Basic repairs and updates likely won’t qualify, while major additions and landscaping likely will (the considerations are the same as those used to determine whether home equity loan interest is deductible). Beyond capital improvement, there are a few specific categories of home improvement that are deductible, including work on home offices (which is subject to specific limitations) and certain modifications for medical/accessibility reasons. 11
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